False Prophets Series – Part 5: Ghulam Ahmad

History is littered with individuals and sacred texts that make the momentous claim of being able to see into the future. In this series of articles, we are going to examine the prophetic credentials of those in whom millions of people have put their trust. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and we will utilise a number of different tools in order to put the most popular of those in history to the test.

Ghulam Ahmad

Ghulam Ahmad (February 13, 1835 – May 26, 1908) is the founder of the Ahmadiyya religion. He was just over forty years of age when he claimed that God communicates directly with him. He traveled extensively across India, preaching his religious ideas and quickly gaining a following. Today it is estimated that the Ahmadiyya religion has over 10 million adherents spread throughout the world. Ghulam Ahmad called himself a Prophet and claimed to receive revelation from God. He was a prolific author, his writings contain numerous prophecies, some of which we will now examine:

1. The plague of Punjab

In 1898 Ghulam Ahmad predicted that a plague would soon affect the region of Punjab in India:

The bubonic plague arrived in Punjab soon after the prophecy. The force of devastation was immense, with the pandemic claiming more than 12 million lives between 1898-1948 [2]. Followers of Ghulam Ahmad cite this prophecy as proof of his divine inspiration and prophethood.

Is this a remarkable prophecy? The Bubonic plague was a recurring epidemic that killed millions of human beings over a period of centuries. The Third Pandemic Plague that hit Punjab during Ghulam Ahmad’s time started in China in mid 19th century, it remained in central China for several decades before it spread to the eastern parts of China in later part of 19th century. From eastern China, it spread through ships to the coastal areas of many countries. This was all long before Ghulam Ahmad had even claimed to be a prophet.

When Ghulam Ahmad made the prediction, the plague had already arrived in India, starting in Bombay in 1896 and then spreading to its surroundings. For it to spread further within India and reach the region of Punjab was inevitable.

In fact, the Punjabi government was already making plans to tackle the plague, long before his prediction. The following govermental order dated 12th February 1897 describes some such drastic measures taken in order to try and contain and control the spread of bubonic plague:

The above information from governmental sources shows that they were aware of a real threat to the Punjab at least a year prior to Ghulam Ahmad’s prediction. This shows that one did not need a special divine insight into the future in order to be aware of the threat of the plague. In fact, given that the plague started in China and had already reached parts of India, its spread to the Punjab was inevitable.

One final point is that Ghulam Ahmad claimed that the plague would remain as a punishment until the people accepted him as a prophet:

Th reality is that the plague has subsided without a mass acceptance of Ghulam Ahmad’s prophethood. Opposition to Ghulam Ahmad increased during his lifetime, and has remained present from the time of his death to the present day. The Ahmadiyya religion continues to be a minority religion in the region. Yet from the 1920s the plague subsided, possibly due to effective vaccination or because of the end of a natural plague cycle which has always happened earlier in the history of this epidemic [5].

2. Outbreak of World War I and the downfall of the Russian Tsar

Followers of Ghulam Ahmad claim that he accurately foretold the outbreak of the First World War and the downfall of the Russian Tsar Nicholas II nearly a decade before these events took place. He claims to have received the following revelation in April 1905:

There are two main claims made about this prophecy. Although Ghulam Ahmad himself never lived long enough to see its fulfillment, his followers claim that it accurately predicted the outbreak of a global war and that it also predicted the downfall of the Tsar. We will analyse each of these claims separately.

With regards to predicting the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, one problem is that the prophecy contains details which go against the First World war. The prophecy mentions that “In the twinkling of an eye the land will be turned upside down”. The global destruction of First World War did not take place “in the twikling of an eye”. The widespread destruction of villages, towns and cities did not come about in an instant as this prophecy implies, but rather was gradual over the course of the war which lasted from 1914 – 1918.

Another problem is that this prophecy is very ambiguous. It could indeed be referring to war, but it could also refer to a global natural disaster (“Suddenly an earthquake will severely shake them all”). It contains apocalyptic language so it could even be talking about a Doomsday scenario in which God will bring about the end the world (“That divine Sign will be a specimen of terror. The sky will attack with a drawn sword”). In fact, when this prophecy was published, Ghulam Ahmad appended a note to it which indicates he was not sure whether it would be a literal earthquake:

We can see that Ghulam Ahmad himself found this prophecy to be ambiguous! One of the few explicit pieces of information provided in the prophecy is the mention of the Tsar (“even the Tsar at that hour, will be in a pitiable state”). Followers of Ghulam Ahmad interpret this to be a reference to the downfall of Tsar Nicholas II of Russia who was wiped out along with his family by the Bolshevik revolution in 1918. One problem with this claim is that the prophecy mentions nothing of a Tsar’s downfall, it only mentions that the Tsar will be “in a pitiable state” which is ambiguous. To read political revolution into such a general statement is a bit of a stretch. However for the sake of argument, if we assume that this prophecy is referring to the downfall of Tsar Nicholas II, is it a remarkable prophecy? It turns out that it is not remarkable, because by early 1905, before Ghulam Ahmad publicised this prophecy, there was in fact widespread social and political unrest throughout Russia which undermined and seriously threatened Tsar Nicholas II’s throne.

Firstly, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905 saw the annihilation of the Russian Baltic Fleet and the loss of Russian influence over Manchuria and Korea. Although it was a brief conflict, it created significant economic problems in Russia. The cost of the war damaged Russian living and working conditions. The historian John Hite states that the existing “background of peasant discontent increased as the government tax burden grew” [8]. Defeat in the Russo-Japanese War was only the start of the social and political unrest that Tsar Nicholas II was to face. Bloody Sunday is the name given to the events of Sunday, 22 January 1905 in St Petersburg, Russia. Unarmed demonstrators led by Father Georgy Gapon were fired upon by soldiers of the Imperial Guard as they marched towards the Winter Palace to present a petition to Tsar Nicholas II. The Tsar himself wrote in his diary:

The immediate consequence of Bloody Sunday was a strike movement that spread throughout the country in places such as Moscow, Riga, Warsaw, Vilna, Kovno, Tiflis, Baku, Batum, and the Baltic region. In all, about 414,000 people participated in the work stoppage during January 1905 [10]. Tsar Nicholas II attempted to appease the people, however he eventually resorted to brute force in order to curtail the burgeoning strike movement that continued to spread. It is estimated that between October 1905 and April 1906, 15,000 peasants and workers were hanged or shot, 20,000 injured, and 45,000 sent into exile [11].

The massacre on Bloody Sunday is considered to be the start of the active phase of the Russian Revolution of 1905 which saw a wave of mass political and social unrest that spread through vast areas of the Russian Empire. It included worker strikes, peasant unrest, and military mutinies. Grand Duke Sergei was killed on February 17, 1905 by a revolutionary’s bomb in Moscow as he left the Kremlin. Tsar Nicholas II himself observed that Russia was in the midst of a revolution. He wrote to his mother in October 1905:

Note the warning in the Tsar’s letter, “We are in the midst of a revolution”. By 1905 it was clear that there was a very real danger that he would be overthrown. So the prophecy by Ghulam Ahmad was merely an accurate political observation based on events that were taking place before he made his prediction. It did not require any divine insight into the future, it was no more a prophecy than Nicholas II’s letter to his mother.

We are now going to turn our attention to some of the false prophecies made by Ghulam Ahmad:

1. Marriage proposal to Muhammadi Begum

In 1888, when Ghulam Ahmad was fifty years old, he asked one of his relatives, Ahmad Beg for the hand of his daughter Mubammadi Begum in marriage. Ghulam Ahmad made it clear that God had promised him that the marriage would certainly take place:

The background to this prophecy is that Muhammadi Begum’s family had been antagonistic toward Ghulam Ahmad, they attacked him publicly and denied his prophethood. In this prophecy we can see that Ghulam Ahmad warned her family that if they refused his proposal then the consequence would be dire. Not only would her future husband die but so would her father. Ghulam Ahmad concludes by saying that she will ultimately be wed to him, that God will “remove every obstacle and in the end bring her into marriage with me”. In actual fact Ghulam Ahmad died while Muhammadi Begum was married to another man which makes this a failed prophecy.

Ghulam Ahmad’s followers emphasise the last sentence of the prophecy: “…and turn the irreligious people into Muslims and bring to guidance those who have lost the right path”. They make the claim that this was the real purpose behind the prophecy, it was not about marriage but actually intended to bring about the repentance of her family. Historically speaking, when Muhammadi Begum’s father Ahmad Beg died it did scare her family into repenting and they sent personal letters of apology to Ghulam Ahmad. Now, the repentance of her family could very well have been one of the objectives of Ghulam Ahmad’s marriage proposal, but this does not change the fact that he prophesied that the marriage would take place, a prediction that he reiterated even after her family repented:

Notice how Ghulam Ahmad identified the prediction of marriage as “the essence of the prophecy” and that his marriage to her is “an absolute fate which cannot at all be averted”. This clearly indicates that the marriage was not conditional on the repentance of her family.

Ghulam Ahmad’s followers also argue that Muhammadi Begum’s marriage to Ghulam Ahmad was conditional on her husband’s repentance. In other words, if he repented then he would not suffer the death that Ghulam Ahmad had forewarned and she would therefore remain married to him. They argue that the prophecy is in harmony because the man she was married to did repent, therefore averting the forewarned death and ultimately satisfying the condition for them to remain married. The problem with this explanation is that Ghulam Ahmad himself prophesied that “ultimately she would be married to me”, that the marriage would “surely take place” and that God would make her his wife, whether as a “virgin or a widow”, and that “none would be able to prevent it”:

Thus, according to Ghulam Ahmad himself, the prophesied marriage with Muhammadi Begum was a settled matter – a matter which had been decided upon in the heavens. Hence, regardless of any obstacles that were in the way, and regardless of the actions of others, there was no possibility of any outcome other than her becoming his wife. This never happened, Ghulam Ahmad died without even taking her as his wife, and this therefore stands as a failed prophecy.

2. His marriage to a virgin and a widow

In the following prophecy Ghulam Ahmad claimed that God revealed that he would marry two women, one a virgin and the other a widow. He claimed that the marriage to a virgin had already taken place and that he was waiting for the marriage to a widow:

Ghulam Ahmad married a total of two times during his life, both of which were before he made this prophecy. His first marriage was to Hurmat Bibi who he eventually divorced. His second marriage was to Nusrat Jehan Begum. He said that the first part of the prophecy, marriage to a virgin, was fulfilled in this second marriage. His marriage to a widow never happened during his life. Now according to his followers, the second part of this prophecy was fulfilled by his second marriage, because he married Nusrat Jehan Begum as a virgin and she later became a widow when he died. In other words, since she outlived him she fulfilled both parts of the prophecy as she was both the virgin and the widow. The reason why this does not work as an explanation is the words of the prophecy itself. Note the words “[God] will bring two ladies in my wedlock” and “One will be virgin and the other widow” which clearly indicates two separate marriages to two different women, one a virgin and the other a widow. This stands as a failed prophecy.

3. Prophecy about Mecca and Medina

Ghulam Ahmad prophesied:

He went on to explain the meaning of this:

The first thing to point out is that Ghulam Ahmad never set foot in either Mecca or Medina during his lifetime, so a literal understanding of this prophecy (“I will die either in Mekkah or Medina”) makes it false. However to be fair to him, he did give the prophecy a different meaning which we will now scrutinise. He claimed that his enemies would be vanquished like with the victory of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) at the conquest of Mecca. When one understands the comprehensive nature of the Prophet Muhammad’s victory, one will realise why this is also a failed prophecy. Not only did the Prophet Muhammad achieve a military victory in Mecca, but the symbols of the pagan religions of his enemies, the numerous idols carved out of stone and wood that adorned the Ka’aba, were destroyed. Furthermore, many of the pagan chiefs of Mecca, those who were the most powerful and influential, converted to his religion and as a result so did their tribes. This mass conversion, which happened very quickly after the conquest, resulted in all the competing pagan religions being eliminated. If you compare this to Ghulam Ahmad’s situation in his native homeland you will see that the exact opposite happened. Not only did his opposition grow during his lifetime, but to this day, more than 100 years since the death of Ghulam Ahmad, the religion of Ahmadiyya is still a tiny minority. With regards to prophecy’s mention of the city of Medina, Ghulam Ahmad claimed that the hearts of the people would be inclined toward him like how the people of Medina inclined toward the Prophet Muhammad. With the Prophet Muhammad, the native Arab tribes grew to love him so much that they made him the supreme leader of Medina. He had complete control and authority to the extent that he could establish laws that were binding on everyone and also enact treaties with the leaders of the other religions that were present in the city. Ghulam Ahmad obviously had nowhere near as much influence during his lifetime, neither socially nor politically.

In conclusion, Ghulam Ahmad made a number of false prophecies during his lifetime. It’s important to note that he himself said that the truthfulness of his claims as a prophet should be measured by the accuracy of his prophecies:

So by his own criteria he fails as a genuine prophet.

Muhammad ﷺ A Genuinely Inspired Prophet

The purpose of spending some time looking at examples of false prophets and false systems of prophesy was to establish a benchmark to help us distinguish truth from falsehood. One can only make accurate predictions about the future and get it right every time when one is inspired by God, Who has perfect knowledge of the future. Muhammad ﷺ demonstrated this unique quality of possessing an insight into the unseen throughout his Prophethood. He not only made numerous detailed predictions about the future which came true, as shown in this article here, but he also rejected the baseless superstitious beliefs and practices of his day, as shown in this article here. These facts should leave us in no doubt that he was inspired by God Almighty.

References

1 – Ghulam Ahmad, Tadhkira, pp. 407 – 408.

2 – Joseph Patrick Byrne, The Black Death, p. 17.

3 – The Punjab Record (1898), vol. 32, p. 76.

4 – Dafe-al-Bala publication date April 1902, vol.18 pp. 225 – 226.

5 – Enayatullah Khan, Proceedings of the Indian History Congress, vol. 74, p. 305.

6 – Barahin-i-Ahmadiyya, vol. 5, p. 120.

7 – Barahin-i-Ahmadiyya, vol. V, p. 120.

8 – John Hite, Tsarist Russia: 1801-1917, p. 37.

9 – Robert Massie, Nicholas and Alexandra, p. 125.

10 – Abraham Ascher, The Revolution of 1905, p. 28.

11 – Philipp Blom, The Vertigo Years, p. 148.

12 – Marvin Lyons, Nicholas II: The Last Tsar, p. 116.

13 – A’ina kamalat Islam, p. 286.

14 – Public Announcement dated 6 September 1894; Majmu`a Ishtiharat, 1986 edition, vol. 2, pp. 42-43.

15 – Izal-i-Awham, p. 198.

16 – Roohany Khazaen, Vol. 15, P. 201.

17 – Tadhkira, p. 591.

18 – Roohany Khazaen, Vol. 19, p. 288.

19 – Pamphlet, 10th July 1888; Aina-e-Kamalat-i-Islam, p. 288.